Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,906$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,647.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(51,647.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,844$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(471 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,983.0}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,983.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,753$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $217,466$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,801.3}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(213,801.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $25,264$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,348.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(24,348.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $73,300$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $210,717$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,186.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(207,186.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,884$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,504.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,504.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,179$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $187,842$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(8.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,229.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(199,229.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,520$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,587.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29,587.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $158,421$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $168,925$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,227.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(177,227.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,900$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,840.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,840.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $93,140$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $40,769$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,067.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(42,067.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,072$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(403 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,121.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,121.1\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,559$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,317$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,891.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26,891.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,679$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,038.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,038.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,633$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,506$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(993 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,077.6}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,077.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,303$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,625.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,625.3\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,817$ on 2020-05-03
